This will not be easy. The United States is reeling from news of alleged Chinese espionage, illegal campaign contributions and a missile buildup across from Taiwan. After the tragic bombing of China’s embassy, anti-NATO rallies erupted with official approval in Beijing, which only deepened American suspicions. Washington pundits speak darkly about Chinese xenophobia and the China menace.
It’s time to cast the passions aside and get back to diplomatic basics. Beginning in the Nixon years, the United States and China reached a grand bargain on the security architecture of Asia. China welcomed the American military presence to counter Soviet expansionism. The United States recognized the People’s Republic, downgrading relations with its rival, Taiwan. And China secured access to the American market in exchange for opening its economy to the outside world.
For some time now, the grand bargain has been under strain. Taiwan’s people are pushing for greater status and security. Beijing leaders face more and more trouble disciplining opponents of the bargain. So do their counterparts in Washington, where an increasingly assertive Congress has long demonstrated greater affinity for Taiwan than has the executive branch. Meanwhile, Japan seeks to play a more active role in the region, to China’s consternation.
The Sino-American military relationship, which included U.S. arms sales to China in the 1980s, has never recovered from the sanctions imposed as a result of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen tragedy. And the technological revolution in military affairs is spreading rapidly. China is developing precision-guided munitions, and the United States is considering where and how to deploy its theater missile defense systems in East Asia when they come on stream in the next decade.
All these developments are pulling the grand bargain apart. In the last two years, President Jiang Zemin and President Clinton have sought to use summit diplomacy to repair the damage. Starting with Jiang’s October 1997 visit to Washington, they tried to lay the groundwork for what they call a “strategic partnership.” Clinton would ease Chinese fears about Taiwan by pledging to adhere to the “one China” policy and to refrain from support for Taiwan independence. And Jiang would promote China’s membership in the World Trade Organization on terms that would greatly enhance U.S. access to the Chinese market and accelerate economic reforms.
Today’s harsh mood suggests that Clinton and Jiang did not establish a new consensus. Now, presidential elections are descending upon the United States and Taiwan in 2000. China’s leaders are confronting difficult domestic challenges due to reduced growth rates and rising unemployment. The room for maneuver is limited. But both sides can take steps to revive the grand bargain.
First, tackle the Kosovo problems. Washington should offer a swift and full explanation of the Chinese Embassy bombing, and begin discussions with China on the Balkan war and the issue of humanitarian intervention, and refrain from relying on Russia as the G-8 envoy to Belgrade. Talks will go more smoothly if Washington can calm anti-Chinese rhetoric in the United States, and quickly confirm its newly nominated ambassador to China, retired Adm. Joseph Preuer.
Beijing, in turn, should halt the incendiary anti-American rhetoric in its official publications. And all sides should work to rebuild the diplomatic foundations; they should restore military exchanges. They should agree to a moratorium on additional Chinese missile deployments across the strait from Taiwan, in return for pledges from the United States not to provide Taiwan with advanced TMD systems. And they should work to complete WTO negotiations basically on the commercially appealing terms that Prime Minister Zhu Rongji offered in April.
These measures would go a long way to restore the damage of recent weeks. They would help to preserve the relationship until new administrations take office in Washington and Taipei and China’s leaders have surmounted their current difficulties. They would signal that reason and national interest have triumphed over emotion.
